Two margin leaks, one root
Margin leaks in two places: forecast error, which drives over and under-production, waste, and lost sales, and on-shelf availability, where the product is in the store but not on the shelf, so it cannot sell. Trade-promotion spend amplifies both, because a promotion creates demand a weak forecast cannot serve.
Forecast accuracy and what is actually on the shelf
Forecast quality is tracked as the average percentage error between forecast and actual. On-shelf availability has a threshold, often put near 98 percent, below which shoppers simply switch. Promotions are exactly when availability tends to drop.
Shared product data, on standards like those the GS1 body maintains, is what lets manufacturer and retailer see the same number.
Where the ERP closes the loop
On Hudace, the forecast flows straight into production, inventory, and trade-spend accruals on one record, so the plan and the financial commitment do not diverge. Xenon AI demand-senses from point-of-sale, promotion calendars, and external signals, and simulates a promotion's incremental volume and return before you commit.
A demand planner approves the plan. The promotion decision stays with the commercial team.
The numbers to watch
Hold forecast quality, shelf availability, and promotion return together.
Forecast accuracy
Tracked as MAPE, the average percentage error. Better accuracy is what lets buffers shrink safely.
On-shelf availability
Share of times a product is actually on the shelf to buy. Below the threshold, shoppers switch.
Trade-promotion ROI
Incremental volume from a promotion vs its cost. What separates a profitable promotion from a giveaway.
Stockout rate
Frequency of being out of stock. The leak both forecast and availability are built to close.
See demand that reaches the shelf on Hudace
Talk to our team about connecting forecast, production, and trade spend on one record.